Several studies cited in "Rapid Development" claim that programmers with similiar skillsets & years of experience can differ in terms of productivity by as much as 10 to 1.

Put more plainly ... assume there are two programmers in the same group, each with 5 years of experience using Visual WidgetWare to make business apps. Each is handed the same project. To make all things equal, assume both programmers produce equally maintainable code. One person takes 10 months, the other takes 1 month.

What's an above average programmer? Someone that can do it 5 months or less. Raw productivity is always the measure. It's only about when you can get done what you say you're gonna do.

What every great programmer knows:

1. how to read other's code (which is usually more like playing a massive game of concentration than reading a book)

2. how to instinctively refactor their own code to make it more generally useful, more readable, more concise

3. how to sit down and study a computer book or manual, straight through, for its own sake

4. how to use a debugger and a profiler

5. when to give up for the day and go home

Software development will remain vital and world-changing for at least the next century. Anyone with even a nodding acquaintence with cognitive science realizes that there are many more good software ideas in our future than our past.

Information is infinitely malleable. We're still in baby-step land. With just a decade of world-wide commercial networks behind us, we're just beginning to see what we can do with all this super-connected computing power.

Trust me ... we ain't seen nothing yet.

As for whether the party's over & the bubble has burst, great developers will always be in demand. It won't be so easy to coast on a few months of HTML, Cold Fusion, and Access. Those experienced in many languages & architectures, with solid fundamentals and good communication skills, shouldn't have any problem finding work.

"I have made this letter longer than usual, because I lack the time to make it short."
-- Blaise Pascal

Hmm... here's a fantasy of mine. Imagine if all openly pro-Java and anti-Java folks spent an hour trying to disprove their respective positions. People saying Swing is slow & looks bad, go find an app that disproves this. People saying Java's good for cross-platform, find counter-examples.

I've got experience on both sides of the fence. All I'll say is: don't believe a damned word anyone says, including me.

1. Find out for yourself
2. Don't form opinions too quickly
3. Stay open-minded & neutral

Why people get so worked up over languages & architectures has always been a mystery to me. True professionals are always interested in the best tool for job. We should all *want* Java and .NET to get better and better, because it gives us more choice.

Ever want to visit the web as it once was? The Wayback Machine lets you visit old web pages dating back as far as 1996. Alas, not far enough to find my first website, but still very cool.